Polymarket

“Polymarket isn't really good at predicting outcomes of those, but they called the 2024 Trump win pretty solidly”

“it's all low level influencers talking about how much money they're making, how you can bet (and yes, it is betting) any time you have 30 seconds to spare”

“Usually the Polymarket markets are pretty accurate and really accurate when an insider at one of the companies puts a bet.”

“That is dramatically higher than you get from things like pollsters”

“beware of those who can influence the settlement of the wager, which may settle not in concordance with the actual outcome in reality”

“it's the most effective tool we know of for surfacing the true odds of something”

“Polymarket reportedly detected the suspicious behavior, reported it, then worked with investigators”

“They are certainly critically flawed at the moment, but I still feel that with proper traceability, KYC, etc. it would be a much fairer system”

“You aren't betting against the house with polymarket, unlike with gambling sites.”

“When I see people making money on Iran attacks, and murder of heads of state - it shows clearly something is deeply wrong with Polymarket.”

“I find their product valuable and use them daily as a source of unusually high quality predictions”

“Gambling sites like Polymarket are just a symptom. More states need to move in this direction, because its just a tax levied on the uninformed to insider cashing in”

“These markets are a straightforward way to cut through all the noise of the current media conglomerates.”

“From a probability perspective Polymarket is much more fair, as you actually have positive expected value if you have an information advantage.”

“They basically provide no value unless you're an insider, but they do tend to be leading indicators”

“By design it's a game where people with inside knowledge or enough power to bend reality can steal money from people with gambling addiction.”

“prediction markets (kalshi, polymarket) are different structurally because theyre exchanges”

“Giving people an easy way to profit (i.e. incentive) to use either direct political power or indirect power via bribes is going to have massive consequences on corruption.”

“So basically instead of trusting CNN and Fox News you trust an anonymous group of people who may or may not profit themselves from their own decisions.”

“A $1k premium paid to Polymarket will cover me handsomely in the event of war and pay out instantly with no hassles.”

“If some unscrupulous official can pull some strings to get boots in the ground in the next few days, they stand to win a significant amount of money.”

“they actually made it fair. Odds are only based on how much money each side bets”

“A much bigger problem might be when these markets bet on a meatspace event and then a bunch go out and try to influence innocents”

“they use it because the prices are the most accurate real-time probabilities available anywhere”

“the prices themselves are set by people with money on the line which is a strong incentive to be accurate”

“Polymarket only resolves on actual event outcomes insofar as mainstream journalism accurately and credibly reports on those events”

“It simply makes the incentives and speculation already present in late-stage capitalism more transparent and accessible”

“There's nothing wrong with a prediction market. There are a lot of reasons why they're helpful in judging the probability of future events more accurately than any single analyst”

“Having them all in one place (or two; kalshi and polymarket) makes life much simpler.”

“which is arguably better transparency than you'd get in trad finance”

“Polymarket is effectively an assassination auction list, you just need to find out which low likelihood resolutions can be swayed by someone's death.”

“the finicky rules and untrustworthiness of the Polymarket admins make them much less reliable than a traditional insurance policy”

“Polymarket predicted 94% of the results for the 2024 election a month out”

“Polymarket user David Bensoussan has made $36,000 by betting against Musk's wildly optimistic self drivi”

“Creating 10s of options to answer this question via gambling on Polymarket/Kalshi does not help anyone except their fellow degenerates.”

“probably polymarket is indeed the best one… assuming the market will resolve fairly”

“Polymarket's main innovation was just ignoring the law, but it's overall a good product.”

“validating and advertising Polymarket on national news outlets will have ugly consequences”

“in practice it’s vulnerable to interpretation of ambiguous wording”

“by using insider information about the UMA cryptocurrency whales who will ultimately decide how the market settles, whether or not it matches reality.”