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Kalshi

Ranked 2 of 3 prediction markets by recommenders

Recommended for useful real-time event probabilities and programmatic access; critics say it works mainly as sports betting with addiction and insider-trading concerns.

Recommended for useful real-time event probabilities and programmatic access; critics say it works mainly as sports betting with addiction and insider-trading concerns.

179 people gave an opinion

recommend it
29
criticize it
150
approval share
16%
Each figure is 2 people. RecommendsCriticizes

Recommended in 11 of 13 months

  1. November 2025: not recommended
  2. December 2025: recommended
  3. January 2026: recommended
  4. February 2026: recommended
  5. March 2026: recommended
  6. April 2026: recommended
  7. May 2026: recommended
  8. June 2026: recommended
  9. July 2026: recommended
  10. August 2026: recommended
  11. September 2026: recommended
  12. October 2026: recommended
  13. November 2026: not recommended (month in progress)

Owned for 1 month

Median of the 3 owners who said how long they have had it.

Each square is one year.

Why it doesn’t carry the badge

  • 29 people recommend itNeeds 10 or more, met.
  • 0.1 recommenders for every criticNeeds 2 to 1 or better, not met.
  • Recommended in 11 of 13 monthsNeeds 4 or more, met.

The same three rules apply to every product, and the badge can’t be bought. How the badge works

What people say about it

The reasons people give, with the number of comments that give each one. Open a reason to read what they said.

Why people recommend it

Each mark is one comment

  • Useful information on real-world events

    “Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers.”

    Comment from 21 Feb 2026 in “Uncovering Insiders and Alpha on Polymarket with AI”

    “occasionally tried checking Polymarket and Kalshi to get an idea of the general political/cultural/technological consensus”

    Comment from 19 Jan 2026 in “The Microstructure of Wealth Transfer in Prediction Markets”

    “a glance at polymarket or kalshi is often enough to know whether something is actually happening”

    Comment from 18 May 2026 in “Utah lawmakers form united front in push to ban prediction markets”
  • Exchange structure makes betting fair

    “Kalshi is only your broker and exchange, so dealing with them is materially less risky in my mind.”

    Comment from 23 Jun 2026 in “Polymarket's viral videos showed people winning big, but the bets were fake”

    “They don't make more money out of losers than they do out of winners”

    Comment from 5 Oct 2026 in “After bankruptcy, he was banned from betting sites. Then he discovered Kalshi”

    “theyre exchanges - zero sum between traders, not house vs player”

    Comment from 12 Apr 2026 in “When legal sports betting surges, so do Americans' financial problems”
  • Regulated with KYC and CFTC oversight

    “Kalshi at least has KYC and CFTC oversight which theoretically adds an enforcement layer”

    Comment from 25 Mar 2026 in “Polymarket Bets on Trump Actions Under Scrutiny”

    “Kalshi has no loophole. The Ninth Circuit ruled on exactly this last week.”

    Comment from 3 Sep 2026 in “New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal”

    “Kalshi won the CFTC case and now congress wants to legislate around it.”

    Comment from 25 Mar 2026 in “Bipartisan bill seeks to ban sports betting on Kalshi and Polymarket”

What people warn about

Each mark is one comment

  • Mainly sports betting or gambling

    “I'm actually a very active Kalshi user, but I cannot see how anyone can seriously argue that it's not sports betting”

    Comment from 19 May 2026 in “Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets”

    “Despite the headlines, Kalshi and Polymarket are mainly just sportsbooks.”

    Comment from 19 May 2026 in “Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets”

    “Kalshi et al are obviously gambling, and yet somehow all the laws about gambling have been politely forgotten by law enforcement.”

    Comment from 6 Jul 2026 in “How Kalshi Infects the News”
  • Encourages addiction and predatory betting

    “these prediction markets are ruining so many people's lives”

    Comment from 12 Aug 2026 in “CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York”

    “Their right to pillage the public and create a new generation of addicts is more important than what people want or what's good for them.”

    Comment from 12 Aug 2026 in “CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York”

    “I can’t imagine that the extreme accessibility and the typical dark patterns deployed by every popular app won’t eventually end badly.”

    Comment from 23 Jun 2026 in “Polymarket's viral videos showed people winning big, but the bets were fake”
  • Skirts laws and regulators

    “They basically did an Uber on the law, completely ignoring how it had long been interpreted and demanding someone stop them.”

    Comment from 29 Aug 2026 in “9th Circuit sides with states in Kalshi gambling fight”

    “They were already illegal! Why be careful, they know they’ve got the social trend and the regulatory bodies on their sides.”

    Comment from 7 Aug 2026 in “Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'”

    “Kalshi became an obvious regulatory dodge (including adding sports and really leaning into the gambling demographic)”

    Comment from 3 Sep 2026 in “New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal”
  • Insider trading and manipulation concerns

    “I really don’t understand how these markets survive a competent DOJ considering the rate they’re having to ban people for “insider trading”.”

    Comment from 3 Sep 2026 in “New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal”

    “Making them markets also frees them to manipulate and trade against their users covertly in ways that cannot be detected”

    Comment from 11 Aug 2026 in “Meta Muse Glimmer – open weights 30B local coding model”

Other prediction markets people recommend

The two most recommended other prediction markets, with the same counts for each, so you can compare like for like. The tick on each bar marks the 2 to 1 line the badge needs.

Kalshi compared with 2 alternatives
ProductRecommendCriticizeApprovalMonthsOwnedBadge
Polymarket7228920%12——
KalshiThis page2915016%111 mo3 owners—
Manifold Markets5183%2——
See all 3 prediction markets, ranked

What people said

40 of the 204 comments that mention it, newest first. Each links to the original comment.

“There's nothing better about working at Flock or X or Kalshi or Palantir”

MixedComment from 20 Oct 2026 in “Facebook Pages require paid subscription to post more than two links per month”

“For every person making a "slightly stupid bet" there's another person who is making a "slightly smart bet"”

RecommendsComment from 5 Oct 2026 in “After bankruptcy, he was banned from betting sites. Then he discovered Kalshi”

“They don't make more money out of losers than they do out of winners”

MixedComment from 5 Oct 2026 in “After bankruptcy, he was banned from betting sites. Then he discovered Kalshi”

“They have different predatory incentives, benefitting from encouraging people to make a large number of slightly stupid bets”

CriticizesComment from 5 Oct 2026 in “After bankruptcy, he was banned from betting sites. Then he discovered Kalshi”

“If anything I think kalshi is more clearly presented as "a bet" vs "the truth"”

MixedComment from 3 Sep 2026 in “New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal”

“Kalshi has no loophole. The Ninth Circuit ruled on exactly this last week.”

RecommendsComment from 3 Sep 2026 in “New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal”

“It's a great way for average person to get share in the profits of giant corporations.”

RecommendsComment from 3 Sep 2026 in “New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal”

“Kalshi became an obvious regulatory dodge (including adding sports and really leaning into the gambling demographic)”

CriticizesComment from 3 Sep 2026 in “New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal”

“I really don’t understand how these markets survive a competent DOJ considering the rate they’re having to ban people for “insider trading”.”

CriticizesComment from 3 Sep 2026 in “New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal”

“They basically did an Uber on the law, completely ignoring how it had long been interpreted and demanding someone stop them.”

CriticizesComment from 29 Aug 2026 in “9th Circuit sides with states in Kalshi gambling fight”

“I encourage you to go to the "machine" (Polymarket, Kalshi) to take position”

RecommendsComment from 21 Aug 2026 in “I should have loved biology”

“Their right to pillage the public and create a new generation of addicts is more important than what people want or what's good for them.”

CriticizesComment from 12 Aug 2026 in “CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York”

“stop the Kalshi executives, who are located in New York, from flagrantly violating the sports gambling laws of New York”

CriticizesComment from 12 Aug 2026 in “CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York”

“these prediction markets are ruining so many people's lives”

MixedComment from 12 Aug 2026 in “CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York”

“Making them markets also frees them to manipulate and trade against their users covertly in ways that cannot be detected”

CriticizesComment from 11 Aug 2026 in “Meta Muse Glimmer – open weights 30B local coding model”

“They were already illegal! Why be careful, they know they’ve got the social trend and the regulatory bodies on their sides.”

CriticizesComment from 7 Aug 2026 in “Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'”

“somewhat concerning from a 'creating adverse incentives' perspective”

MixedComment from 15 Jul 2026 in “Kalshi creates prediction markets on airport flight cancellations”

“Kalshi et al are obviously gambling, and yet somehow all the laws about gambling have been politely forgotten by law enforcement.”

CriticizesComment from 6 Jul 2026 in “How Kalshi Infects the News”

“Legally, Kalshi is not gambling as of the current legislation.”

RecommendsComment from 25 Jun 2026 in “Polymarket's viral videos showed people winning big, but the bets were fake”

“This greatly changes (improves) the incentives for the house”

RecommendsComment from 23 Jun 2026 in “Polymarket's viral videos showed people winning big, but the bets were fake”

“Kalshi is only your broker and exchange, so dealing with them is materially less risky in my mind.”

RecommendsComment from 23 Jun 2026 in “Polymarket's viral videos showed people winning big, but the bets were fake”

“I can’t imagine that the extreme accessibility and the typical dark patterns deployed by every popular app won’t eventually end badly.”

CriticizesComment from 23 Jun 2026 in “Polymarket's viral videos showed people winning big, but the bets were fake”

“I don't think there is any question about where on the Venn diagram sites like Kalshi and Polymarket belong.”

CriticizesComment from 27 May 2026 in “Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence”

“I look at the markets because it's information”

RecommendsComment from 25 May 2026 in “Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets”

“I'm actually a very active Kalshi user, but I cannot see how anyone can seriously argue that it's not sports betting”

MixedComment from 19 May 2026 in “Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets”

“Despite the headlines, Kalshi and Polymarket are mainly just sportsbooks.”

MixedComment from 19 May 2026 in “Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets”

“a glance at polymarket or kalshi is often enough to know whether something is actually happening”

RecommendsComment from 18 May 2026 in “Utah lawmakers form united front in push to ban prediction markets”

“It's clear that Polymarket and Kalshi host these markets to serve bettors, not to produce useful information.”

CriticizesComment from 9 May 2026 in “Are Prediction Markets Good for Anything?”

“I hope they stay as open and generous as they are now with programmatic access”

RecommendsComment from 21 Apr 2026 in “Prediction markets are breaking the news and becoming their own beat”

“theyre exchanges - zero sum between traders, not house vs player”

MixedComment from 12 Apr 2026 in “When legal sports betting surges, so do Americans' financial problems”

“they actually make betting fair, which was impossible before”

RecommendsComment from 27 Mar 2026 in “We Haven't Seen the Worst of What Gambling and Prediction Markets Will Do”

“there's real edge for anyone who bothers to run even a basic ensemble model”

RecommendsComment from 26 Mar 2026 in “Ask HN: Anyone trading prediction markets programmatically?”

“Kalshi at least has KYC and CFTC oversight which theoretically adds an enforcement layer”

MixedComment from 25 Mar 2026 in “Polymarket Bets on Trump Actions Under Scrutiny”

“Kalshi won the CFTC case and now congress wants to legislate around it.”

MixedComment from 25 Mar 2026 in “Bipartisan bill seeks to ban sports betting on Kalshi and Polymarket”

“Having them all in one place (or two; kalshi and polymarket) makes life much simpler.”

RecommendsComment from 7 Mar 2026 in “Senators Launch Effort Ban Elected Officials Profiting from Prediction Markets”

“I find these markets incredibly useful in day to day life”

RecommendsComment from 7 Mar 2026 in “Senators Launch Effort Ban Elected Officials Profiting from Prediction Markets”

“the whole concept of betting on real world events is ludicrous to begin with”

MixedComment from 7 Mar 2026 in “War Prediction Markets Are a National-Security Threat”

“Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers.”

RecommendsComment from 21 Feb 2026 in “Uncovering Insiders and Alpha on Polymarket with AI”

“occasionally tried checking Polymarket and Kalshi to get an idea of the general political/cultural/technological consensus”

MixedComment from 19 Jan 2026 in “The Microstructure of Wealth Transfer in Prediction Markets”

“I'm not a fan of the betting side of prediction markets like Kalshi or Polymarket”

MixedComment from 3 Dec 2025 in “Kalshi Reaches $11B Valuation as App Takes over America”

Counts come from 1,795,640 Hacker News comments, November 2025 to November 2026. How we count. Report a mistake.