Kalshi
Ranked 2 of 3 prediction markets by recommenders
Recommended for useful real-time event probabilities and programmatic access; critics say it works mainly as sports betting with addiction and insider-trading concerns.
Recommended for useful real-time event probabilities and programmatic access; critics say it works mainly as sports betting with addiction and insider-trading concerns.
179 people gave an opinion
- recommend it
- 29
- criticize it
- 150
- approval share
- 16%
Recommended in 11 of 13 months
- November 2025: not recommended
- December 2025: recommended
- January 2026: recommended
- February 2026: recommended
- March 2026: recommended
- April 2026: recommended
- May 2026: recommended
- June 2026: recommended
- July 2026: recommended
- August 2026: recommended
- September 2026: recommended
- October 2026: recommended
- November 2026: not recommended (month in progress)
Owned for 1 month
Median of the 3 owners who said how long they have had it.
Each square is one year.
Why it doesn’t carry the badge
- 29 people recommend itNeeds 10 or more, met.
- 0.1 recommenders for every criticNeeds 2 to 1 or better, not met.
- Recommended in 11 of 13 monthsNeeds 4 or more, met.
The same three rules apply to every product, and the badge can’t be bought. How the badge works
What people say about it
The reasons people give, with the number of comments that give each one. Open a reason to read what they said.
Why people recommend it
Each mark is one comment
Useful information on real-world events
“Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers.”
Comment from 21 Feb 2026 in “Uncovering Insiders and Alpha on Polymarket with AI” “occasionally tried checking Polymarket and Kalshi to get an idea of the general political/cultural/technological consensus”
Comment from 19 Jan 2026 in “The Microstructure of Wealth Transfer in Prediction Markets” “a glance at polymarket or kalshi is often enough to know whether something is actually happening”
Comment from 18 May 2026 in “Utah lawmakers form united front in push to ban prediction markets” - Comment from 7 Mar 2026 in “Senators Launch Effort Ban Elected Officials Profiting from Prediction Markets”
- Comment from 25 May 2026 in “Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets”
Exchange structure makes betting fair
“Kalshi is only your broker and exchange, so dealing with them is materially less risky in my mind.”
Comment from 23 Jun 2026 in “Polymarket's viral videos showed people winning big, but the bets were fake” “They don't make more money out of losers than they do out of winners”
Comment from 5 Oct 2026 in “After bankruptcy, he was banned from betting sites. Then he discovered Kalshi” “theyre exchanges - zero sum between traders, not house vs player”
Comment from 12 Apr 2026 in “When legal sports betting surges, so do Americans' financial problems” - Comment from 23 Jun 2026 in “Polymarket's viral videos showed people winning big, but the bets were fake”
- Comment from 27 Mar 2026 in “We Haven't Seen the Worst of What Gambling and Prediction Markets Will Do”
Regulated with KYC and CFTC oversight
“Kalshi at least has KYC and CFTC oversight which theoretically adds an enforcement layer”
Comment from 25 Mar 2026 in “Polymarket Bets on Trump Actions Under Scrutiny” “Kalshi has no loophole. The Ninth Circuit ruled on exactly this last week.”
Comment from 3 Sep 2026 in “New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal” “Kalshi won the CFTC case and now congress wants to legislate around it.”
Comment from 25 Mar 2026 in “Bipartisan bill seeks to ban sports betting on Kalshi and Polymarket” - Comment from 25 Jun 2026 in “Polymarket's viral videos showed people winning big, but the bets were fake”
What people warn about
Each mark is one comment
Mainly sports betting or gambling
“I'm actually a very active Kalshi user, but I cannot see how anyone can seriously argue that it's not sports betting”
Comment from 19 May 2026 in “Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets” “Despite the headlines, Kalshi and Polymarket are mainly just sportsbooks.”
Comment from 19 May 2026 in “Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets” “Kalshi et al are obviously gambling, and yet somehow all the laws about gambling have been politely forgotten by law enforcement.”
Comment from 6 Jul 2026 in “How Kalshi Infects the News” - Comment from 12 Aug 2026 in “CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York”
- Comment from 3 Sep 2026 in “New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal”
- Comment from 9 May 2026 in “Are Prediction Markets Good for Anything?”
- Comment from 27 May 2026 in “Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence”
Encourages addiction and predatory betting
“these prediction markets are ruining so many people's lives”
Comment from 12 Aug 2026 in “CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York” “Their right to pillage the public and create a new generation of addicts is more important than what people want or what's good for them.”
Comment from 12 Aug 2026 in “CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York” “I can’t imagine that the extreme accessibility and the typical dark patterns deployed by every popular app won’t eventually end badly.”
Comment from 23 Jun 2026 in “Polymarket's viral videos showed people winning big, but the bets were fake” - Comment from 5 Oct 2026 in “After bankruptcy, he was banned from betting sites. Then he discovered Kalshi”
Skirts laws and regulators
“They basically did an Uber on the law, completely ignoring how it had long been interpreted and demanding someone stop them.”
Comment from 29 Aug 2026 in “9th Circuit sides with states in Kalshi gambling fight” “They were already illegal! Why be careful, they know they’ve got the social trend and the regulatory bodies on their sides.”
Comment from 7 Aug 2026 in “Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'” “Kalshi became an obvious regulatory dodge (including adding sports and really leaning into the gambling demographic)”
Comment from 3 Sep 2026 in “New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal” Insider trading and manipulation concerns
“I really don’t understand how these markets survive a competent DOJ considering the rate they’re having to ban people for “insider trading”.”
Comment from 3 Sep 2026 in “New York Times and The Athletic workers demand company scrap Kalshi deal” “Making them markets also frees them to manipulate and trade against their users covertly in ways that cannot be detected”
Comment from 11 Aug 2026 in “Meta Muse Glimmer – open weights 30B local coding model”
Other prediction markets people recommend
The two most recommended other prediction markets, with the same counts for each, so you can compare like for like. The tick on each bar marks the 2 to 1 line the badge needs.
| Product | Recommend | Criticize | Approval | Months | Owned | Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 72 | 289 | 20% | 12 | — | — |
| KalshiThis page | 29 | 150 | 16% | 11 | 1 mo3 owners | — |
| Manifold Markets | 5 | 1 | 83% | 2 | — | — |
What people said
40 of the 204 comments that mention it, newest first. Each links to the original comment.
“There's nothing better about working at Flock or X or Kalshi or Palantir”
“For every person making a "slightly stupid bet" there's another person who is making a "slightly smart bet"”
“They don't make more money out of losers than they do out of winners”
“They have different predatory incentives, benefitting from encouraging people to make a large number of slightly stupid bets”
“If anything I think kalshi is more clearly presented as "a bet" vs "the truth"”
“Kalshi has no loophole. The Ninth Circuit ruled on exactly this last week.”
“It's a great way for average person to get share in the profits of giant corporations.”
“Kalshi became an obvious regulatory dodge (including adding sports and really leaning into the gambling demographic)”
“I really don’t understand how these markets survive a competent DOJ considering the rate they’re having to ban people for “insider trading”.”
“They basically did an Uber on the law, completely ignoring how it had long been interpreted and demanding someone stop them.”
“I encourage you to go to the "machine" (Polymarket, Kalshi) to take position”
“Their right to pillage the public and create a new generation of addicts is more important than what people want or what's good for them.”
“stop the Kalshi executives, who are located in New York, from flagrantly violating the sports gambling laws of New York”
“these prediction markets are ruining so many people's lives”
“Making them markets also frees them to manipulate and trade against their users covertly in ways that cannot be detected”
“They were already illegal! Why be careful, they know they’ve got the social trend and the regulatory bodies on their sides.”
“somewhat concerning from a 'creating adverse incentives' perspective”
“Kalshi et al are obviously gambling, and yet somehow all the laws about gambling have been politely forgotten by law enforcement.”
“Legally, Kalshi is not gambling as of the current legislation.”
“This greatly changes (improves) the incentives for the house”
“Kalshi is only your broker and exchange, so dealing with them is materially less risky in my mind.”
“I can’t imagine that the extreme accessibility and the typical dark patterns deployed by every popular app won’t eventually end badly.”
“I don't think there is any question about where on the Venn diagram sites like Kalshi and Polymarket belong.”
“I look at the markets because it's information”
“I'm actually a very active Kalshi user, but I cannot see how anyone can seriously argue that it's not sports betting”
“Despite the headlines, Kalshi and Polymarket are mainly just sportsbooks.”
“a glance at polymarket or kalshi is often enough to know whether something is actually happening”
“It's clear that Polymarket and Kalshi host these markets to serve bettors, not to produce useful information.”
“I hope they stay as open and generous as they are now with programmatic access”
“theyre exchanges - zero sum between traders, not house vs player”
“they actually make betting fair, which was impossible before”
“there's real edge for anyone who bothers to run even a basic ensemble model”
“Kalshi at least has KYC and CFTC oversight which theoretically adds an enforcement layer”
“Kalshi won the CFTC case and now congress wants to legislate around it.”
“Having them all in one place (or two; kalshi and polymarket) makes life much simpler.”
“I find these markets incredibly useful in day to day life”
“the whole concept of betting on real world events is ludicrous to begin with”
“Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers.”
“occasionally tried checking Polymarket and Kalshi to get an idea of the general political/cultural/technological consensus”
“I'm not a fan of the betting side of prediction markets like Kalshi or Polymarket”
Counts come from 1,795,640 Hacker News comments, November 2025 to November 2026. How we count. Report a mistake.