Manifold Markets
Ranked 3 of 3 prediction markets by recommenders
Play-money prediction market that people recommend for practical forecasting and as an alternative to real-money markets like Polymarket. Main caveat: it uses fake money, which one critic mocked as gambling.
Play-money prediction market that people recommend for practical forecasting and as an alternative to real-money markets like Polymarket. Main caveat: it uses fake money, which one critic mocked as gambling.
6 people gave an opinion
- recommend it
- 5
- criticize it
- 1
- approval share
- 83%
Recommended in 2 of 13 months
- November 2025: not recommended
- December 2025: not recommended
- January 2026: not recommended
- February 2026: not recommended
- March 2026: recommended
- April 2026: not recommended
- May 2026: recommended
- June 2026: not recommended
- July 2026: not recommended
- August 2026: not recommended
- September 2026: not recommended
- October 2026: not recommended
- November 2026: not recommended (month in progress)
Why it doesn’t carry the badge
- 5 people recommend itNeeds 10 or more, not met.
- 5 recommenders for every criticNeeds 2 to 1 or better, met.
- Recommended in 2 of 13 monthsNeeds 4 or more, not met.
The same three rules apply to every product, and the badge can’t be bought. How the badge works
What people say about it
The reasons people give, with the number of comments that give each one. Open a reason to read what they said.
Why people recommend it
Each mark is one comment
Practical utility for forecasting
“I would replace them with https://manifold.markets/ or maybe heavily regulate them. they do have practical utility in forecasting”
Comment from 26 May 2026 in “Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence” “they do have practical utility in forecasting”
Comment from 27 May 2026 in “Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence” Alternative to real-money prediction markets
“I would replace them with https://manifold.markets/ or maybe heavily regulate them. they do have practical utility in forecasting”
Comment from 26 May 2026 in “Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence”
What people warn about
Each mark is one comment
Uses fake money, mocked as gambling
“This is so smart. Gambling with fake money.”
Comment from 18 Mar 2026 in “Aliens.gov ~ domain registered 17MAR2026”
Other prediction markets people recommend
The two most recommended other prediction markets, with the same counts for each, so you can compare like for like. The tick on each bar marks the 2 to 1 line the badge needs.
| Product | Recommend | Criticize | Approval | Months | Owned | Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 72 | 289 | 20% | 12 | — | — |
| Kalshi | 29 | 150 | 16% | 11 | 1 mo3 owners | — |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | 5 | 1 | 83% | 2 | — | — |
What people said
4 of the 6 comments that mention it, newest first. Each links to the original comment.
“they do have practical utility in forecasting”
“I would replace them with https://manifold.markets/ or maybe heavily regulate them. they do have practical utility in forecasting”
“sounds like that is what you are looking for”
“This is so smart. Gambling with fake money.”
Counts come from 1,795,640 Hacker News comments, November 2025 to November 2026. How we count. Report a mistake.