Superforecasting
Superforecasting by Tetlock and Gardnerby Tetlock and Gardner
Shares rank 65 of 152 nonfiction books by recommenders
Recommended as an accessible starting point for learning how good forecasters think, including using outside views to adjust inside views.
Recommended as an accessible starting point for learning how good forecasters think, including using outside views to adjust inside views.
4 people gave an opinion
- recommend it
- 4
- criticize it
- 0
- approval share
- 100%
Recommended in 4 of 13 months
- November 2025: recommended
- December 2025: recommended
- January 2026: not recommended
- February 2026: not recommended
- March 2026: not recommended
- April 2026: recommended
- May 2026: recommended
- June 2026: not recommended
- July 2026: not recommended
- August 2026: not recommended
- September 2026: not recommended
- October 2026: not recommended
- November 2026: not recommended (month in progress)
Why it doesn’t carry the badge
- 4 people recommend itNeeds 10 or more, not met.
- Nobody criticizes itNeeds 2 to 1 or better, met.
- Recommended in 4 of 13 monthsNeeds 4 or more, met.
The same three rules apply to every product, and the badge can’t be bought. How the badge works
What people say about it
The reasons people give, with the number of comments that give each one. Open a reason to read what they said.
Why people recommend it
Each mark is one comment
Teaches outside view for forecasting
“Read the book Superforecasting to understand how effective forecasters use an outside view to adjust their inside view”
Comment from 15 May 2026 in “The Sigmoids Won't Save You” Good starting point for forecasting
“If forecasting interests you, I recommend using it as a jumping off point.”
Comment from 11 Dec 2025 in “Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight” Builds intuition for forecasting concepts
“I did get a much better intuition for what stuff meant after reading 'superforecasting' by tetlock and gardner”
Comment from 9 Nov 2025 in “Study identifies weaknesses in how AI systems are evaluated”
Other nonfiction books people recommend
The four most recommended other nonfiction books, with the same counts for each, so you can compare like for like. The tick on each bar marks the 2 to 1 line the badge needs.
| Product | Recommend | Criticize | Approval | Months | Owned | Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cuckoo's Eggby Cliff Stoll | 40 | 0 | 100% | 8 | — | Approved |
| Amusing Ourselves to Deathby Neil Postman | 36 | 0 | 100% | 9 | 1 yr3 owners | Approved |
| The Anxious Generationby Jonathan Haidt | 24 | 12 | 67% | 10 | — | Approved |
| Bullshit Jobsby David Graeber | 20 | 12 | 63% | 8 | — | — |
| Superforecastingby Tetlock and GardnerThis page | 4 | 0 | 100% | 4 | — | — |
What people said
All 4 comments that mention it, newest first. Each links to the original comment.
“Read the book Superforecasting to understand how effective forecasters use an outside view to adjust their inside view”
“See Tetlock's book Superforecasting.”
“If forecasting interests you, I recommend using it as a jumping off point.”
“I did get a much better intuition for what stuff meant after reading 'superforecasting' by tetlock and gardner”
Counts come from 1,795,640 Hacker News comments, November 2025 to November 2026. How we count. Report a mistake.