# Polymarket 72 Hacker News commenters recommended Polymarket and 289 criticized it, November 2025 to November 2026. It was recommended in 12 of 13 months. **Verdict:** Recommended for odds many see as accurate forecasts and betting without a house. Common caveat: insiders can profit and resolution rules can be unclear. ## Why people recommend it - Prices give accurate real-time probabilities (6 comments): "Usually the Polymarket markets are pretty accurate and really accurate when an insider at one of the companies puts a bet." ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48726563)) "the prices themselves are set by people with money on the line which is a strong incentive to be accurate" ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47468123)) "they use it because the prices are the most accurate real-time probabilities available anywhere" ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47481098)) - Odds set only by money wagered (3 comments): "the prices themselves are set by people with money on the line which is a strong incentive to be accurate" ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47468123)) "they actually made it fair. Odds are only based on how much money each side bets" ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47537899)) "which is arguably better transparency than you'd get in trad finance" ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47274773)) - Fairer than house-based gambling (3 comments): "From a probability perspective Polymarket is much more fair, as you actually have positive expected value if you have an information advantage." ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47878610)) "You aren't betting against the house with polymarket, unlike with gambling sites." ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48280938)) "they actually made it fair. Odds are only based on how much money each side bets" ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47537899)) - Called 2024 election accurately (2 comments): "Polymarket isn't really good at predicting outcomes of those, but they called the 2024 Trump win pretty solidly" ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50308925)) "Polymarket predicted 94% of the results for the 2024 election a month out" ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47197132)) ## What people warn about - Insiders profit from private information (5 comments): "So basically instead of trusting CNN and Fox News you trust an anonymous group of people who may or may not profit themselves from their own decisions." ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47730841)) "by using insider information about the UMA cryptocurrency whales who will ultimately decide how the market settles, whether or not it matches reality." ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46514815)) "If some unscrupulous official can pull some strings to get boots in the ground in the next few days, they stand to win a significant amount of money." ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47542403)) - Unclear or manipulable resolution rules (5 comments): "in practice it’s vulnerable to interpretation of ambiguous wording" ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46532791)) "by using insider information about the UMA cryptocurrency whales who will ultimately decide how the market settles, whether or not it matches reality." ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46514815)) "beware of those who can influence the settlement of the wager, which may settle not in concordance with the actual outcome in reality" ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48304100)) - Feels like gambling, fuels addiction (4 comments): "Gambling sites like Polymarket are just a symptom. More states need to move in this direction, because its just a tax levied on the uninformed to insider cashing in" ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48202649)) "it's all low level influencers talking about how much money they're making, how you can bet (and yes, it is betting) any time you have 30 seconds to spare" ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50120769)) "By design it's a game where people with inside knowledge or enough power to bend reality can steal money from people with gambling addiction." ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47754227)) - Markets can encourage real-world harm (4 comments): "Giving people an easy way to profit (i.e. incentive) to use either direct political power or indirect power via bribes is going to have massive consequences on corruption." ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47731606)) "Polymarket is effectively an assassination auction list, you just need to find out which low likelihood resolutions can be swayed by someone's death." ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47213011)) "If some unscrupulous official can pull some strings to get boots in the ground in the next few days, they stand to win a significant amount of money." ([source](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47542403)) ## Alternatives hackers recommend - [Kalshi](https://hackerapproved.com/p/kalshi.md): 29 recommend ## Where to get it - [Visit the official site](https://polymarket.com/) ## Cite as Hacker Approved, "Polymarket", https://hackerapproved.com/p/polymarket/ (counts from 1,795,640 Hacker News comments, November 2025 to November 2026).