AI 2040
Forecast scenario
Recommended for covering AI alignment and power concentration in depth, with detailed supplements. Critics find it speculative and overly focused on China.
7 people recommended AI 2040 in Hacker News comments, 2 had mixed feelings and 6 criticized it, November 2025 to October 2026.
Summary written by Claude from 20 comments. It was written before the November 2026 recount, and 18 of those comments still count.
15 people gave an opinion
- recommend it
- 7
- mixed feelings
- 2
- warn against or regret it
- 6
The record
Recommended in 4 of 12 months
In 8 different threads.
- November 2025: not recommended
- December 2025: not recommended
- January 2026: not recommended
- February 2026: not recommended
- March 2026: not recommended
- April 2026: not recommended
- May 2026: not recommended
- June 2026: not recommended
- July 2026: recommended
- August 2026: recommended
- September 2026: recommended
- October 2026: recommended
Why it doesn’t carry the badge
- 7 people recommend itNeeds 10 or more, not met.
- 1.1 recommenders for every criticNeeds 2 to 1 or better, not met.
- Recommended in 4 of 12 monthsNeeds 4 or more, met.
- Recommended in 8 threadsNeeds 5 or more, met.
- The biggest thread supplies 43% of its recommendersNeeds half or less, met.
The same rules apply to every product, and the badge can’t be bought. Mixed feelings count toward neither side. How the badge works
What people say about it
Reasons grouped from a sample of 17 of the 19 opinions about it, picked in proportion to how many people recommend it, have mixed feelings and criticize it. Each mark is one comment in the sample. Open a reason to read what they said.
Why people recommend it
Each mark is one comment
Long, detailed, with useful supplements
“Excellent work by Daniel and the authors. 47,000 words plus supplements is a huge read (and re-read”
Comment from 9 Jul 2026 in “AI 2040: Plan A” “There's a decent amount of stuff in Plan A. Especially if you read the supplements.”
Comment from 29 Jul 2026 in “Pacing the frontier” “There's a bunch of quite good speculation like this in Plan A”
Comment from 28 Aug 2026 in “The turbulent AI era is here” Good starting point, easy to read
“AI 2040 is a different type of document but probably easier to read to get a sense of their thinking”
Comment from 9 Sep 2026 in “Anthropic researcher says more than 10% chance AI "could kill all humans"” “A good starting point is to read Plan A”
Comment from 9 Sep 2026 in “I resigned from Anthropic today” “Read Plan A and tell people about it.”
Comment from 6 Aug 2026 in “Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis is stepping down” Realistic proposal on alignment and power
“the first one I've read that deals with both the AI alignment and power concentration issues in a sufficient way”
Comment from 9 Jul 2026 in “AI 2040: Plan A” “is the most realistic proposal I’ve seen by far”
Comment from 11 Sep 2026 in “The Last 24 Hours Are the Opening Scene in a Horror Movie”
What people warn about
Each mark is one comment
Predictions failed; no accountability
“Notice the many times when a prediction failed and the so called prophet would come back in a few years”
Comment from 11 Jul 2026 in “AI 2040: Plan A” “Where's the accountability? Where's the followup or retrospective?”
Comment from 11 Jul 2026 in “AI 2040: Plan A”
What people recommend instead
The same counts for each, so you can compare like for like. The tick on each bar marks the 2 to 1 line the badge needs.
| Product | Recommend | Mixed | Criticize | Approval | Months | Had for | Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI 2027 | 20 | 4 | 28 | 42% | 9 | — | — |
| AI 2040This page | 7 | 2 | 6 | 54% | 4 | — | — |
What people said
17 of the 19 opinions about it, picked in proportion to the three counts, newest first. Each links to the original comment.
“I'd like them to take AI-2027 and AI-2040 seriously.”
“I've found https://www.ai-2040.com to be a good overview of some reasons why.”
“is the most realistic proposal I’ve seen by far”
“AI 2040 is a different type of document but probably easier to read to get a sense of their thinking”
“A good starting point is to read Plan A”
“There's a bunch of quite good speculation like this in Plan A”
“Not sure those would appear very rational to anyone outside of your LessWrong bubble.”
“Read Plan A and tell people about it.”
“There's a decent amount of stuff in Plan A. Especially if you read the supplements.”
“They're proposing a totalitarian global dictatorship controlling computing hardware and software.”
“Where's the accountability? Where's the followup or retrospective?”
“The whole thing is unreadable, and laughable, just like AI2027 previously.”
“Notice the many times when a prediction failed and the so called prophet would come back in a few years”
“Though it has bizzare fixation on geopolitics and China which it severely understimated.”
“they get into the weeds about precisely how the US and China could address this”
“the first one I've read that deals with both the AI alignment and power concentration issues in a sufficient way”
“Excellent work by Daniel and the authors. 47,000 words plus supplements is a huge read (and re-read”
Counts come from 1,791,911 Hacker News comments labeled by Claude, November 2025 to October 2026, with data through October 31, 2026. Counts updated 2 Nov 2026. How we count. Report a mistake.